生成信号

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TS因子挖掘构建流程.md

@@ -1,121 +0,0 @@
-# 基于BTC 4h数据的时间序列因子模型实操流程（因子挖掘→检验→回测→信号生成）
-结合《ssrn.3255748.pdf》中时间序列（TS）因子模型的核心逻辑，以及高维高频金融数据建模的前沿方法（如投影主成分分析P-PCA），以下为针对BTC 4h数据的完整实操流程，包含每一步的理论原理、操作细节及论文引用依据。
-
-
-## 一、数据准备与预处理（基础步骤，确保数据质量）
-### 1. 数据来源与变量选择
-- **核心数据**：BTC的4h级原始数据，至少包含“开盘价、收盘价、最高价、最低价、成交量、成交额”，时间跨度建议≥5年（如2018年1月-2023年12月，共约11325个4h数据点），来源可选择CoinGecko、Binance API等合规平台。
-- **扩展变量**：基于原始数据计算技术指标变量（作为因子候选），参考《ssrn.3255748.pdf》中“资产特征驱动因子”的逻辑（），具体包括：
-  - 收益类：4h收益率（\(R_t = \ln(Close_t/Close_{t-1})\)）、滚动12期（48h）收益率标准差（波动率）、滚动6期（24h）收益率偏度（尾部风险）；
-  - 趋势类：EMA（指数移动平均，如4期/8期/16期）、MACD（异同移动平均线）、RSI（相对强弱指数，14期）；
-  - 量能类：成交量滚动6期均值、成交额/成交量比值（量价配合度）；
-  - 波动类：ATR（平均真实波幅，14期）、高低价差率（\((High_t-Low_t)/Close_{t-1}\)）。
-
-### 2. 数据预处理（消除噪声与异常值）
-- **异常值处理**：采用“3σ法则”识别异常收益率（如单日涨跌幅＞20%的4h数据），用前后相邻数据的线性插值替换，避免极端值对因子估计的干扰——这与中山大学研究中“抑制高频特异性波动”的思路一致（摘要1、5），该研究指出高频数据中的异常波动会扭曲因子估计，需通过预处理降低噪声。
-- **缺失值填补**：若存在数据缺失（如交易所维护导致的断更），采用“前向填充+滚动均值平滑”（如用前3期均值填补），确保时间序列的连续性。
-- **标准化**：对所有候选因子变量进行“Z-score标准化”（\(X_{std}=(X-\mu)/\sigma\)，其中\(\mu\)、\(\sigma\)为滚动30期（120h）的均值和标准差），避免量纲差异影响因子权重——参考《ssrn.3255748.pdf》中CS因子“标准化匹配TS因子标准差”的操作逻辑（）。
-
-
-## 二、因子挖掘：基于时间序列逻辑构建候选因子
-### 1. 因子构建原则（贴合TS因子“预设规则、可解释”的核心特性）
-根据《ssrn.3255748.pdf》中TS因子的构建逻辑（），BTC 4h因子需满足“基于固定规则、反映特定风险/收益驱动逻辑”，避免CS因子“月度优化、非可投资”的缺陷（）。具体分为“基础因子”和“合成因子”两类：
-
-#### （1）基础因子：单一逻辑驱动的因子
-| 因子名称 | 因子逻辑 | 计算方式（4h频率） | 理论依据（论文关联） |
-|----------|----------|----------------------|------------------------|
-| 趋势因子（TREND） | 价格趋势方向，趋势向上则预期收益高 | \(TREND_t = I(Close_t > EMA_{16,t}) \times 1 + I(Close_t < EMA_{4,t}) \times (-1)\)，其中\(I(\cdot)\)为指示函数 | 类似《ssrn.3255748.pdf》中“特征驱动收益”逻辑（），用EMA交叉反映趋势特征 |
-| 波动率因子（VOL） | 波动率越高，风险溢价越高 | \(VOL_t = \text{滚动12期收益率标准差}\) | 对应中山大学研究中“高频波动捕捉风险”的思路（摘要1、5），波动率是高频金融数据的核心风险特征 |
-| 量价因子（VOLP） | 量价配合度，成交量放大且价格上涨则动量强 | \(VOLP_t = I(Volume_t > \text{滚动6期Volume均值}) \times R_t\) | 参考《ssrn.3255748.pdf》中“动量因子（UMD）”的“收益+量能”逻辑（），UMD通过前期收益反映动量，此处叠加成交量增强信号 |
-| 反转因子（REV） | 短期反转效应，过度上涨/下跌后预期回调 | \(REV_t = -R_{t-1}\)（前1期4h收益率的相反数） | 符合时间序列因子“单一特征驱动”的特性（），捕捉BTC短期（4h级）的反转风险 |
-
-#### （2）合成因子：多变量降维得到的综合因子
-采用中山大学研究提出的**投影主成分分析（P-PCA）** 构建合成因子（摘要1、5），该方法相比传统PCA能更有效利用特征变量信息，抑制高频噪声，具体步骤：
-1. **选择输入变量**：将上述基础因子（TREND、VOL、VOLP、REV）及3个核心技术指标（MACD差值、RSI、ATR）作为P-PCA的输入矩阵\(X_{T \times K}\)（T为时间维度，K=7为变量维度）。
-2. **投影步骤**：根据P-PCA理论（摘要1、5），先将输入变量投影到“可观测特征空间”（此处选择“滚动12期收益率”作为工具变量，反映BTC收益的长期动态），得到投影矩阵\(P\)；
-3. **提取主成分**：对投影后的矩阵\(P \times X\)进行PCA，取前2个主成分（累计方差解释率需≥80%）作为合成因子：
-   - 合成因子1（PC1）：命名为“趋势-量能因子”，权重集中在TREND、VOLP，反映趋势与量能的协同效应；
-   - 合成因子2（PC2）：命名为“风险因子”，权重集中在VOL、ATR，反映4h级的风险暴露程度。
-4. **因子方向校准**：通过“因子与未来1期收益率的相关性”调整方向（如PC1与\(R_{t+1}\)正相关则保留原方向，负相关则取反），确保因子值越高，预期收益越高——贴合《ssrn.3255748.pdf》中“因子收益差为正”的TS因子设计逻辑（如HML=高BM收益-低BM收益）（）。
-
-
-## 三、因子检验：验证因子的有效性与稳健性
-### 1. 因子收益检验（核心：因子能否区分未来收益）
-参考《ssrn.3255748.pdf》中“因子平均收益t统计量”的检验逻辑（），对每个候选因子进行“分组回测”，步骤如下：
-- **分组规则**：每月（按4h频率约180个数据点）将BTC 4h数据按因子值分为3组（低因子组L、中因子组M、高因子组H）；
-- **计算组收益**：每组的4h收益为该组内因子值对应的BTC收益率（因仅单标的，此处为“因子值分位数对应的收益”，如高因子组H为因子值前30%的4h数据的平均收益）；
-- **检验指标**：
-  - 因子收益差：\(H-L\)收益（高因子组收益 - 低因子组收益），若显著为正，说明因子能区分收益；
-  - t统计量：用Newey-West调整的t统计量（滞后6期，对应24h）检验\(H-L\)收益的显著性（避免自相关导致的虚假显著），参考《ssrn.3255748.pdf》中“因子平均收益t统计量”的计算方式（）。
-
-**示例结果要求**：如趋势因子（TREND）的\(H-L\)收益为0.35%/4h（年化约84%），t统计量=2.89（＞2，显著），说明该因子有效。
-
-### 2. 因子跨度回归（检验因子的边际解释力）
-根据《ssrn.3255748.pdf》中“因子跨度回归”的核心逻辑（），检验单个因子能否被其他因子替代，步骤如下：
-- **回归模型**：以BTC未来1期4h收益率\(R_{t+1}\)为因变量，以候选因子及控制变量为自变量，构建时间序列回归：  
-  \(R_{t+1} = \alpha + \beta_1 F_1_t + \beta_2 F_2_t + ... + \beta_k F_k_t + e_{t+1}\)  
-  其中\(F_1,F_2,...F_k\)为候选因子，\(\alpha\)为定价误差，\(\beta_i\)为因子载荷。
-- **检验标准**：若某因子的\(\beta_i\)显著不为0（t统计量＞2），且加入该因子后模型\(R^2\)提升≥5%，说明该因子具有“不可替代的边际解释力”，未被其他因子吸收——类似《ssrn.3255748.pdf》中TS因子“市场、规模因子边际信息显著”的结论（）。
-
-**示例**：若加入合成因子PC1后，模型\(R^2\)从0.12提升至0.18，PC1的\(\beta=0.25\)（t=3.12），说明PC1具有独立解释力。
-
-### 3. 稳健性检验（排除偶然因素）
-- **样本外检验**：将数据分为“训练集（2018-2021年）”和“样本外集（2022-2023年）”，若因子在样本外的\(H-L\)收益t统计量仍＞1.8（接近显著），说明因子稳健——参考《ssrn.3255748.pdf》中“跨样本验证因子表现”的逻辑（）。
-- **频率敏感性检验**：将4h频率调整为2h或8h，若因子收益差的显著性变化≤20%，说明因子不受频率小幅变动影响——符合中山大学研究中“高频因子需跨频率稳健”的要求（摘要1、5）。
-
-
-## 四、因子组合：构建多因子模型（贴合TS模型“常数载荷、可投资”特性）
-### 1. 因子权重确定（避免CS模型“月度优化”的复杂性）
-根据《ssrn.3255748.pdf》中TS因子模型“预设因子权重、常数载荷”的逻辑（），采用“风险平价”或“回归系数加权”，避免动态优化导致的过拟合：
-- **风险平价加权**：使每个因子的“风险贡献相等”（因子风险贡献=因子权重×因子波动率×因子与收益的相关性），公式为：  
-  \(w_i = \frac{1/\sigma_i}{\sum_{j=1}^n 1/\sigma_j}\)，其中\(\sigma_i\)为因子\(F_i\)的滚动30期波动率；  
-  该方法确保单一因子不会过度主导组合，贴合《ssrn.3255748.pdf》中“多因子分散风险”的思路（如FF五因子模型的等权重逻辑）（）。
-- **回归系数加权**：用训练集的时间序列回归系数作为权重（如因子\(F_i\)的权重\(w_i = \beta_i / \sum_{j=1}^n |\beta_j|\)，\(\beta_i\)为\(R_{t+1}\)对\(F_i\)的回归系数），确保权重与因子解释力正相关。
-
-### 2. 多因子综合得分（最终信号输入）
-将筛选后的有效因子（如TREND、VOLP、PC1、PC2）按权重合并，得到4h级的“多因子综合得分”：  
-\(Score_t = \sum_{i=1}^n w_i \times F_{i,t}\)  
-其中\(F_{i,t}\)为标准化后的因子值，\(Score_t\)越高，代表未来1期（4h）BTC上涨概率越大——该得分对应《ssrn.3255748.pdf》中“因子组合预测收益”的逻辑（），通过多因子协同提升预测准确性。
-
-
-## 五、回测：验证因子模型的实战有效性
-### 1. 回测框架设计（贴合TS因子“可投资”的核心优势）
-参考《ssrn.3255748.pdf》中“资产定价检验”的回测逻辑（），采用“等仓单边交易”（仅做多/做空BTC，无杠杆），避免CS因子“高杠杆”的非可投资性（），具体参数：
-- **调仓频率**：4h调仓（与因子频率一致），每个4h周期根据\(Score_t\)生成交易信号；
-- **手续费**：按0.1%/次（现货交易手续费，参考Binance等平台），滑点按0.05%/次（4h级BTC流动性充足，滑点较低）；
-- **回测区间**：2019年1月-2023年12月（共约4680个4h数据点，包含牛熊周期，检验模型适应性）。
-
-### 2. 交易信号规则（基于多因子得分的阈值策略）
-根据《ssrn.3255748.pdf》中“因子值与收益正相关”的结论（），设定阈值生成买卖信号：
-- **买入信号**：当\(Score_t > 0.8\sigma_{Score}\)（\(\sigma_{Score}\)为Score的滚动30期标准差），且前1期无持仓时，买入BTC（满仓）；
-- **卖出信号**：当\(Score_t < -0.8\sigma_{Score}\)，且前1期有持仓时，卖出BTC（空仓）；
-- **观望信号**：当\(Score_t\)在\([-0.8\sigma_{Score}, 0.8\sigma_{Score}]\)之间，维持原有持仓（避免频繁交易）。
-
-### 3. 回测指标与评估（参考论文中的资产定价检验指标）
-采用《ssrn.3255748.pdf》中“平均收益、夏普比率、最大回撤”等核心指标（），同时加入高频数据特有的“胜率、盈亏比”，具体如下：
-| 回测指标 | 计算方式 | 合格标准（BTC 4h策略） |
-|----------|----------|--------------------------|
-| 年化收益率 | \((1+\text{累计收益})^{252×6/24} - 1\)（假设年交易252天，每天6个4h周期） | ＞30%（跑赢BTC现货年化收益） |
-| 夏普比率 | 年化收益率 / 年化波动率 | ＞1.5（风险调整收益优秀） |
-| 最大回撤 | 回测期间最大亏损幅度 | ＜50%（控制极端风险） |
-| 胜率 | 盈利交易次数 / 总交易次数 | ＞55%（信号准确性高） |
-
-**示例结果**：若回测得到年化收益45%、夏普比率1.8、最大回撤42%、胜率58%，说明模型有效——类似《ssrn.3255748.pdf》中“TS因子模型解释力达标”的实证结论（）。
-
-
-## 六、信号优化与上线：动态适应市场变化
-### 1. 因子载荷动态调整（参考“时变载荷”的改进思路）
-虽然《ssrn.3255748.pdf》中TS模型默认“常数载荷”，但中山大学研究指出“因子载荷时变能提升预测准确性”（摘要1、5），因此可引入“滚动窗口调整权重”：
-- 每30天（180个4h周期）重新估计因子权重（如风险平价权重的波动率用最新30期数据），避免因子失效（如BTC在牛熊周期中，波动率因子的重要性会变化）；
-- 若某因子连续60个4h周期（10天）的\(H-L\)收益t统计量＜1.0，暂时剔除该因子，待其恢复显著性后重新加入——贴合《ssrn.3255748.pdf》中“因子边际信息动态检验”的逻辑（）。
-
-### 2. 实盘上线与监控
-- **信号输出**：每4h生成“Score_t”及对应买卖信号，通过API对接交易所（如Binance Spot API）实现自动交易；
-- **风险监控**：实时监控“因子有效性指标”（如当前因子的\(H-L\)收益t统计量、模型\(R^2\)），若指标连续3天不达标（如t统计量＜1.2），暂停自动交易，人工排查原因（如市场结构变化导致因子失效）；
-- **日志记录**：保存每4h的因子值、信号、交易结果，每月进行回测复盘，对比实盘与回测的差异，优化因子参数（如调整EMA周期、阈值系数）。
-
-
-## 七、关键论文引用与理论支撑总结
-1. 《ssrn.3255748.pdf》（Fama & French 2018）：核心支撑TS因子“预设规则、可投资、常数斜率回归检验”的逻辑，指导因子构建、检验、回测的整体框架（、、）；
-2. 中山大学《高维、高频金融数据的因子建模》（摘要1、5）：提供P-PCA合成因子、高频噪声处理、时变载荷调整的方法，解决BTC 4h高频数据的因子估计问题；
-3. 国家金融与发展实验室《收益率曲线三因子模型》（摘要2）：借鉴“因子解释度、动态调整”的思路，用于合成因子的方差解释率检验和权重动态优化。

backtest.py

@@ -1,180 +0,0 @@
-"""
-回测模块
-"""
-import numpy as np
-import pandas as pd
-from typing import Dict, Optional, Tuple
-
-
-class BacktestEngine:
-    """回测引擎"""
-    
-    def __init__(
-        self,
-        commission: float = 0.001,  # 手续费率
-        slippage: float = 0.0005,   # 滑点
-        initial_capital: float = 10000.0
-    ):
-        self.commission = commission
-        self.slippage = slippage
-        self.initial_capital = initial_capital
-    
-    def run(
-        self,
-        signals: pd.Series,
-        price: pd.Series,
-        score: Optional[pd.Series] = None
-    ) -> Dict:
-        """
-        运行回测
-        
-        Parameters:
-        -----------
-        signals : Series
-            交易信号：1=买入，-1=卖出，0=持有
-        price : Series
-            价格序列
-        score : Series, optional
-            因子得分（用于记录）
-        
-        Returns:
-        --------
-        dict: 回测结果
-        """
-        # 对齐数据
-        aligned = pd.concat([signals, price], axis=1).dropna()
-        aligned.columns = ['signal', 'price']
-        
-        if score is not None:
-            aligned = pd.concat([aligned, score], axis=1)
-            aligned.columns = ['signal', 'price', 'score']
-        
-        # 向量化优化：先计算价格变化率
-        price_pct = aligned['price'].pct_change().fillna(0)
-        
-        # 初始化
-        capital = self.initial_capital
-        position = 0  # 持仓：0=空仓，1=满仓
-        equity = np.zeros(len(aligned))
-        equity[0] = capital
-        trades = []
-        buy_price = None  # 记录买入价格
-        
-        # 检测信号变化点（向量化）
-        signal_changes = aligned['signal'].diff().fillna(0) != 0
-        
-        # 遍历处理（优化：只在信号变化时处理）
-        for i in range(1, len(aligned)):
-            current_signal = aligned['signal'].iloc[i]
-            current_price = aligned['price'].iloc[i]
-            prev_signal = aligned['signal'].iloc[i-1]
-            
-            # 计算收益率（基于价格变化）
-            if position == 1:
-                period_return = price_pct.iloc[i]
-            else:
-                period_return = 0
-            
-            # 交易逻辑（只在信号变化时处理）
-            if signal_changes.iloc[i]:
-                if current_signal == 1 and position == 0:  # 买入
-                    # 扣除手续费和滑点
-                    cost = self.commission + self.slippage
-                    capital *= (1 - cost)
-                    position = 1
-                    buy_price = current_price
-                    trades.append({
-                        'date': aligned.index[i],
-                        'action': 'buy',
-                        'price': current_price,
-                        'capital': capital
-                    })
-                elif current_signal == -1 and position == 1:  # 卖出
-                    # 扣除手续费和滑点
-                    cost = self.commission + self.slippage
-                    capital *= (1 - cost)
-                    position = 0
-                    buy_price = None
-                    trades.append({
-                        'date': aligned.index[i],
-                        'action': 'sell',
-                        'price': current_price,
-                        'capital': capital
-                    })
-            
-            # 更新权益
-            if position == 1 and buy_price is not None:
-                equity[i] = capital * (current_price / buy_price)
-            else:
-                equity[i] = capital
-        
-        equity_series = pd.Series(equity, index=aligned.index)
-        returns_series = price_pct * (aligned['signal'].shift(1) == 1).astype(int)
-        
-        # 计算回测指标
-        metrics = self._calculate_metrics(equity_series, returns_series, len(trades))
-        
-        return {
-            'equity': equity_series,
-            'returns': returns_series,
-            'trades': trades,
-            'metrics': metrics,
-            'final_capital': equity_series.iloc[-1] if len(equity_series) > 0 else self.initial_capital
-        }
-    
-    def _calculate_metrics(
-        self,
-        equity: pd.Series,
-        returns: pd.Series,
-        num_trades: int = 0
-    ) -> Dict:
-        """计算回测指标"""
-        if len(equity) == 0 or len(returns) == 0:
-            return {}
-        
-        # 总收益率
-        total_return = (equity.iloc[-1] / equity.iloc[0] - 1) if len(equity) > 0 else 0
-        
-        # 年化收益率（假设每天6个4h周期，一年252个交易日）
-        periods_per_year = 252 * 6
-        n_periods = len(returns)
-        if n_periods > 0:
-            annual_return = (1 + total_return) ** (periods_per_year / n_periods) - 1
-        else:
-            annual_return = 0
-        
-        # 年化波动率
-        annual_vol = returns.std() * np.sqrt(periods_per_year)
-        
-        # 夏普比率
-        sharpe = annual_return / (annual_vol + 1e-8)
-        
-        # 最大回撤
-        cummax = equity.cummax()
-        drawdown = (equity - cummax) / cummax
-        max_drawdown = drawdown.min()
-        
-        # 胜率（基于实际交易）
-        # 只计算有持仓期间的收益率
-        position_returns = returns[returns != 0]
-        winning_trades = (position_returns > 0).sum()
-        win_rate = winning_trades / len(position_returns) if len(position_returns) > 0 else 0
-        
-        # 盈亏比
-        positive_returns = position_returns[position_returns > 0]
-        negative_returns = position_returns[position_returns < 0]
-        avg_win = positive_returns.mean() if len(positive_returns) > 0 else 0
-        avg_loss = abs(negative_returns.mean()) if len(negative_returns) > 0 else 0
-        profit_loss_ratio = avg_win / (avg_loss + 1e-8)
-        
-        return {
-            'total_return': total_return,
-            'annual_return': annual_return,
-            'annual_volatility': annual_vol,
-            'sharpe_ratio': sharpe,
-            'max_drawdown': max_drawdown,
-            'win_rate': win_rate,
-            'profit_loss_ratio': profit_loss_ratio,
-            'total_trades': num_trades  # 实际交易次数
-        }
-

deap_factor_mining.py

@@ -1,436 +0,0 @@
-import argparse
-import math
-import operator
-import random
-from dataclasses import dataclass
-from typing import Callable, Dict, List, Optional, Tuple
-
-import numpy as np
-import pandas as pd
-from deap import algorithms, base, creator, gp, tools
-
-
-# ------------------------------
-# Data & Config
-# ------------------------------
-
-
-@dataclass
-class EvolutionConfig:
-    population_size: int = 200
-    generations: int = 30
-    tournament_size: int = 5
-    crossover_prob: float = 0.9
-    mutation_prob: float = 0.05
-    elitism: int = 5
-    max_depth_init: int = 4
-    max_depth: int = 8
-    ic_window: int = 1000
-    ret_horizon: int = 24
-    ic_method: str = "spearman"  # or "pearson"
-    complexity_penalty: float = 0.001
-    seed: Optional[int] = 42
-
-
-# ------------------------------
-# Safe operators for GP
-# ------------------------------
-
-
-def _safe_div(left: np.ndarray, right: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray:
-    denom = np.where(np.abs(right) < 1e-12, np.nan, right)
-    return left / denom
-
-
-def _safe_log(x: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray:
-    return np.log(np.clip(np.abs(x), 1e-12, None))
-
-
-def _safe_sqrt(x: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray:
-    return np.sqrt(np.clip(x, 0.0, None))
-
-
-def _safe_pow(x: np.ndarray, y: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray:
-    # Limit exponent to avoid overflow
-    y_clip = np.clip(y, -3.0, 3.0)
-    with np.errstate(over="ignore", invalid="ignore"):
-        out = np.power(np.clip(x, -1e6, 1e6), y_clip)
-    out[~np.isfinite(out)] = np.nan
-    return out
-
-
-def _rolling_mean(x: np.ndarray, window: int) -> np.ndarray:
-    s = pd.Series(x)
-    return s.rolling(window, min_periods=max(2, window // 2)).mean().to_numpy()
-
-
-def _rolling_std(x: np.ndarray, window: int) -> np.ndarray:
-    s = pd.Series(x)
-    return s.rolling(window, min_periods=max(2, window // 2)).std().to_numpy()
-
-
-def _ts_delta(x: np.ndarray, period: int) -> np.ndarray:
-    s = pd.Series(x)
-    return s.diff(period).to_numpy()
-
-
-def _ts_rank(x: np.ndarray, window: int) -> np.ndarray:
-    s = pd.Series(x)
-    return s.rolling(window, min_periods=max(2, window // 2)).apply(
-        lambda a: pd.Series(a).rank(pct=True).iloc[-1], raw=False
-    ).to_numpy()
-
-
-def _delay(x: np.ndarray, period: int) -> np.ndarray:
-    s = pd.Series(x)
-    return s.shift(period).to_numpy()
-
-
-# ------------------------------
-# Primitive set
-# ------------------------------
-
-
-def build_pset(feature_names: List[str]) -> gp.PrimitiveSetTyped:
-    # Each feature is a numpy array of floats; GP outputs numpy array
-    pset = gp.PrimitiveSetTyped("MAIN", [np.ndarray for _ in feature_names], np.ndarray)
-
-    # Name the arguments for readability
-    for i, name in enumerate(feature_names):
-        pset.renameArguments(**{f"ARG{i}": name})
-
-    # Binary arithmetic
-    pset.addPrimitive(lambda x, y: x + y, [np.ndarray, np.ndarray], np.ndarray, name="add")
-    pset.addPrimitive(lambda x, y: x - y, [np.ndarray, np.ndarray], np.ndarray, name="sub")
-    pset.addPrimitive(lambda x, y: x * y, [np.ndarray, np.ndarray], np.ndarray, name="mul")
-    pset.addPrimitive(_safe_div, [np.ndarray, np.ndarray], np.ndarray, name="div")
-
-    # Unary transforms
-    pset.addPrimitive(np.negative, [np.ndarray], np.ndarray, name="neg")
-    pset.addPrimitive(np.abs, [np.ndarray], np.ndarray, name="abs")
-    pset.addPrimitive(_safe_log, [np.ndarray], np.ndarray, name="log")
-    pset.addPrimitive(_safe_sqrt, [np.ndarray], np.ndarray, name="sqrt")
-
-    # Power
-    pset.addPrimitive(_safe_pow, [np.ndarray, np.ndarray], np.ndarray, name="pow")
-
-    # Rolling ops with fixed small set of windows via partials
-    for w in (3, 6, 12, 24, 48, 96):
-        pset.addPrimitive(lambda x, w=w: _rolling_mean(x, w), [np.ndarray], np.ndarray, name=f"sma{w}")
-        pset.addPrimitive(lambda x, w=w: _rolling_std(x, w), [np.ndarray], np.ndarray, name=f"std{w}")
-        pset.addPrimitive(lambda x, w=w: _ts_rank(x, w), [np.ndarray], np.ndarray, name=f"rank{w}")
-        pset.addPrimitive(lambda x, w=w: _ts_delta(x, w), [np.ndarray], np.ndarray, name=f"delta{w}")
-        pset.addPrimitive(lambda x, w=w: _delay(x, w), [np.ndarray], np.ndarray, name=f"delay{w}")
-
-    # Ephemeral constants: scalar to array via broadcasting
-    # 随机加一个常数 不一定合理
-    def _const() -> np.ndarray:
-        return np.array(random.uniform(-2.0, 2.0))
-
-    pset.addEphemeralConstant("const", _const, np.ndarray)
-
-    return pset
-
-
-# ------------------------------
-# Fitness and evaluation
-# ------------------------------
-
-
-def compute_returns(price: pd.Series, horizon: int) -> pd.Series:
-    return price.pct_change(horizon).shift(-horizon)
-
-
-def rank_ic(a: pd.Series, b: pd.Series, method: str = "spearman") -> float:
-    mask = a.notna() & b.notna()
-    if mask.sum() < 10:
-        return np.nan
-    x = a[mask]
-    y = b[mask]
-    if method == "spearman":
-        return x.rank(pct=True).corr(y.rank(pct=True))
-    return x.corr(y)
-
-
-def series_zscore(x: pd.Series) -> pd.Series:
-    return (x - x.mean()) / (x.std(ddof=0) + 1e-12)
-
-
-def evaluate_individual(
-    individual,
-    toolbox: base.Toolbox,
-    features: List[pd.Series],
-    target: pd.Series,
-    config: EvolutionConfig,
-) -> Tuple[float]:
-    func = toolbox.compile(expr=individual)
-
-    # Build feature matrix aligned index
-    idx = target.index
-    inputs = [f.reindex(idx).to_numpy() for f in features]
-
-    try:
-        raw = func(*inputs)
-    except Exception:
-        return (-1e6,)
-
-    # Ensure array length
-    if not isinstance(raw, np.ndarray):
-        return (-1e6,)
-    if raw.shape[0] != len(idx):
-        return (-1e6,)
-
-    # Convert to series and standardize per-window
-    factor = pd.Series(raw, index=idx)
-    factor = factor.replace([np.inf, -np.inf], np.nan)
-    factor = factor.ffill().bfill()
-
-    # Rolling IC over window segments
-    window = config.ic_window
-    if len(factor) < window + 10:
-        return (-1e6,)
-
-    ic_values: List[float] = []
-    step = max(window // 5, 50)
-    for start in range(0, len(factor) - window, step):
-        end = start + window
-        sub_factor = factor.iloc[start:end]
-        sub_target = target.iloc[start:end]
-        ic = rank_ic(series_zscore(sub_factor), sub_target, method=config.ic_method)
-        if np.isfinite(ic):
-            ic_values.append(ic)
-
-    if not ic_values:
-        return (-1e6,)
-
-    mean_ic = float(np.nanmean(ic_values))
-
-    # Complexity penalty (size of tree)
-    complexity = len(individual)
-    fitness = mean_ic - config.complexity_penalty * complexity
-    if not np.isfinite(fitness):
-        fitness = -1e6
-    return (fitness,)
-
-
-# ------------------------------
-# Evolution runner
-# ------------------------------
-
-
-def run_evolution(
-    df: pd.DataFrame,
-    price_col: str,
-    feature_cols: List[str],
-    config: EvolutionConfig,
-) -> Tuple[tools.HallOfFame, base.Toolbox, gp.PrimitiveSetTyped, List[pd.Series]]:
-    if config.seed is not None:
-        random.seed(config.seed)
-        np.random.seed(config.seed)
-
-    price = df[price_col].astype(float)
-    forward_ret = compute_returns(price, config.ret_horizon)
-    target = forward_ret
-
-    features = [df[c].astype(float) for c in feature_cols]
-
-    pset = build_pset(feature_cols)
-
-    # Fitness: maximize IC (single objective)
-    if not hasattr(creator, "FitnessMax"):
-        creator.create("FitnessMax", base.Fitness, weights=(1.0,))
-    if not hasattr(creator, "Individual"):
-        creator.create("Individual", gp.PrimitiveTree, fitness=creator.FitnessMax)
-
-    toolbox = base.Toolbox()
-    toolbox.register("expr",
-                     gp.genHalfAndHalf,
-                     pset=pset,
-                     min_=1,
-                     max_=config.max_depth_init)
-    toolbox.register("individual", tools.initIterate, creator.Individual, toolbox.expr)
-    toolbox.register("population", tools.initRepeat, list, toolbox.individual)
-    toolbox.register("compile", gp.compile, pset=pset)
-
-    toolbox.register(
-        "evaluate",
-        evaluate_individual,
-        toolbox=toolbox,
-        features=features,
-        target=target,
-        config=config,
-    )
-
-    # Genetic operators
-    toolbox.register("select", tools.selTournament, tournsize=config.tournament_size)
-    toolbox.register("mate", gp.cxOnePoint)
-    toolbox.register("expr_mut", gp.genFull, min_=0, max_=2)
-    toolbox.register("mutate", gp.mutUniform, expr=toolbox.expr_mut, pset=pset)
-
-    # bloat control
-    toolbox.decorate("mate", gp.staticLimit(key=operator.attrgetter("height"), max_value=config.max_depth))
-    toolbox.decorate("mutate", gp.staticLimit(key=operator.attrgetter("height"), max_value=config.max_depth))
-
-    pop = toolbox.population(n=config.population_size)
-    hof = tools.HallOfFame(maxsize=max(5, config.elitism))
-
-    stats_fit = tools.Statistics(lambda ind: ind.fitness.values[0])
-    stats_size = tools.Statistics(len)
-    mstats = tools.MultiStatistics(fitness=stats_fit, size=stats_size)
-    mstats.register("avg", np.nanmean)
-    mstats.register("std", np.nanstd)
-    mstats.register("min", np.nanmin)
-    mstats.register("max", np.nanmax)
-
-    pop, logbook = algorithms.eaSimple(
-        pop,
-        toolbox,
-        cxpb=config.crossover_prob,
-        mutpb=config.mutation_prob,
-        ngen=config.generations,
-        stats=mstats,
-        halloffame=hof,
-        verbose=True,
-    )
-
-    return hof, toolbox, pset, features
-
-
-# ------------------------------
-# Factor compilation & backtest
-# ------------------------------
-
-
-def compile_factor(
-    individual,
-    toolbox: base.Toolbox,
-    index: pd.Index,
-    features: List[pd.Series],
-) -> pd.Series:
-    func = toolbox.compile(expr=individual)
-    inputs = [f.reindex(index).to_numpy() for f in features]
-    raw = func(*inputs)
-    s = pd.Series(raw, index=index)
-    s = s.replace([np.inf, -np.inf], np.nan).ffill().bfill()
-    return s
-
-
-def simple_long_short_backtest(
-    factor: pd.Series,
-    price: pd.Series,
-    ret_horizon: int,
-    top_quantile: float = 0.2,
-    bottom_quantile: float = 0.2,
-) -> pd.Series:
-    f = factor.align(price, join="right")[0]
-    future_ret = compute_returns(price, ret_horizon)
-
-    ranks = f.rank(pct=True)
-    long_mask = ranks >= (1 - top_quantile)
-    short_mask = ranks <= bottom_quantile
-    ls_signal = long_mask.astype(float) - short_mask.astype(float)
-    ls_signal = ls_signal.shift(1)  # trade on next bar
-
-    pnl = ls_signal * future_ret
-    pnl = pnl.replace([np.inf, -np.inf], np.nan).fillna(0.0)
-    equity = (1.0 + pnl).cumprod()
-    return equity
-
-
-# ------------------------------
-# CLI
-# ------------------------------
-
-
-def parse_args() -> argparse.Namespace:
-    p = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="DEAP-based factor mining (genetic programming)")
-    p.add_argument("--data", type=str, default="ETH_USDT-1h.feather", help="Input feather/csv file")
-    p.add_argument("--price_col", type=str, default="close", help="Price column name")
-    p.add_argument(
-        "--features",
-        type=str,
-        default="open,high,low,close,volume",
-        help="Comma-separated feature column names",
-    )
-    p.add_argument("--ret_horizon", type=int, default=24)
-    p.add_argument("--population", type=int, default=200)
-    p.add_argument("--generations", type=int, default=30)
-    p.add_argument("--ic_window", type=int, default=1000)
-    p.add_argument("--seed", type=int, default=42)
-    p.add_argument("--ic_method", type=str, default="spearman", choices=["spearman", "pearson"])
-    p.add_argument("--complexity_penalty", type=float, default=0.001)
-    p.add_argument("--save_best", type=str, default="best_factors.txt")
-    return p.parse_args()
-
-
-def load_dataframe(path: str) -> pd.DataFrame:
-    if path.endswith(".feather"):
-        df = pd.read_feather(path)
-    elif path.endswith(".csv"):
-        df = pd.read_csv(path)
-    else:
-        raise ValueError("Unsupported file format. Use .feather or .csv")
-
-    # Try to parse datetime index if present
-    for col in ["datetime", "time", "timestamp", "date"]:
-        if col in df.columns:
-            df[col] = pd.to_datetime(df[col])
-            df = df.set_index(col).sort_index()
-            break
-    return df
-
-
-def main():
-    args = parse_args()
-    df = load_dataframe(args.data)
-    df = df.head(1000)
-
-    feature_cols = [c.strip() for c in args.features.split(",") if c.strip()]
-    for c in [args.price_col] + feature_cols:
-        if c not in df.columns:
-            raise KeyError(f"Column '{c}' not found in data")
-
-    config = EvolutionConfig(
-        population_size=args.population,
-        generations=args.generations,
-        ic_window=args.ic_window,
-        ret_horizon=args.ret_horizon,
-        ic_method=args.ic_method,
-        complexity_penalty=args.complexity_penalty,
-        seed=args.seed,
-    )
-
-    hof, toolbox, pset, features = run_evolution(df, args.price_col, feature_cols, config)
-
-    price = df[args.price_col].astype(float)
-    best_expressions: List[str] = []
-    for i, ind in enumerate(hof):
-        expr_str = str(ind)
-        best_expressions.append(expr_str)
-
-    # Save best expressions
-    with open(args.save_best, "w", encoding="utf-8") as f:
-        for expr in best_expressions:
-            f.write(expr + "\n")
-
-    # Compile the top-1 and run a simple long/short backtest for sanity
-    if len(hof) > 0:
-        best = hof[0]
-        factor_series = compile_factor(best, toolbox, df.index, features)
-        equity = simple_long_short_backtest(factor_series, price, config.ret_horizon)
-        print("Best expression:", str(best))
-        print("Final equity (normalized):", float(equity.iloc[-1]))
-        # Also export factor and equity
-        out = pd.DataFrame({
-            "factor": factor_series,
-            "equity": equity,
-        })
-        out.to_csv("deap_factor_output.csv")
-        print("Saved best expressions to", args.save_best)
-        print("Saved factor/equity to deap_factor_output.csv")
-
-
-if __name__ == "__main__":
-    main()
-
-

example.py

@@ -1,110 +0,0 @@
-"""
-使用示例：时间序列因子挖掘流程
-"""
-from pipeline import FactorPipeline
-from factors import FactorMiner, create_default_factors
-
-# 方式1：使用默认流程（最简单）
-def example_simple():
-    """简单示例"""
-    pipeline = FactorPipeline(
-        ret_horizon=1,      # 未来1期收益率
-        ic_window=30,       # IC计算窗口
-        commission=0.001,   # 手续费0.1%
-        slippage=0.0005     # 滑点0.05%
-    )
-    
-    # 运行完整流程
-    results = pipeline.run_full_pipeline(
-        file_path="ETH_USDT-1h.feather",
-        min_ic=0.01,        # 最小IC阈值
-        min_tstat=1.5,      # 最小t统计量
-        weight_method='risk_parity',  # 权重方法：risk_parity, regression, equal
-        buy_threshold=0.8,  # 买入阈值（标准差倍数）
-        sell_threshold=-0.8 # 卖出阈值（标准差倍数）
-    )
-    
-    return results
-
-
-# 方式2：分步骤执行（更灵活）
-def example_step_by_step():
-    """分步骤示例"""
-    pipeline = FactorPipeline(ret_horizon=1, ic_window=30)
-    
-    # 步骤1：加载和预处理数据
-    pipeline.load_and_preprocess("ETH_USDT-1h.feather")
-    
-    # 步骤2：因子挖掘（可以使用自定义因子）
-    custom_miner = create_default_factors()
-    # 可以在这里添加自定义因子
-    # custom_miner.register_rule_factor('CUSTOM', your_custom_function)
-    pipeline.mine_factors(custom_miner)
-    
-    # 步骤3：因子检验
-    pipeline.validate_factors(min_ic=0.01, min_tstat=1.5)
-    
-    # 步骤4：因子组合
-    pipeline.combine_factors(weight_method='risk_parity')
-    
-    # 步骤5：生成信号
-    signals = pipeline.generate_signals(buy_threshold=0.8, sell_threshold=-0.8)
-    
-    # 步骤6：回测
-    backtest_results = pipeline.backtest(signals)
-    
-    return {
-        'factors': pipeline.factors,
-        'score': pipeline.score,
-        'signals': signals,
-        'backtest': backtest_results
-    }
-
-
-# 方式3：自定义因子
-def example_custom_factors():
-    """自定义因子示例"""
-    from factors import RuleFactor
-    import pandas as pd
-    import numpy as np
-    
-    # 定义自定义因子函数
-    def my_custom_factor(data: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.Series:
-        """自定义因子：价格与均线的距离"""
-        return (data['close'] - data['ema8']) / data['ema8']
-    
-    # 创建因子挖掘器
-    miner = create_default_factors()
-    
-    # 注册自定义因子
-    miner.register_rule_factor('CUSTOM_DISTANCE', my_custom_factor)
-    
-    # 使用自定义因子挖掘器
-    pipeline = FactorPipeline()
-    pipeline.load_and_preprocess("ETH_USDT-1h.feather")
-    pipeline.mine_factors(custom_miner=miner)
-    pipeline.validate_factors()
-    pipeline.combine_factors()
-    pipeline.backtest()
-    
-    return pipeline
-
-
-if __name__ == "__main__":
-    # 运行简单示例
-    print("运行简单示例...")
-    results = example_simple()
-    
-    # 保存结果
-    if results['factors'] is not None:
-        results['factors'].to_csv("factors_output.csv")
-        print("\n因子数据已保存到 factors_output.csv")
-    
-    if results['score'] is not None:
-        results['score'].to_csv("score_output.csv")
-        print("综合得分已保存到 score_output.csv")
-    
-    if results['backtest'] is not None and 'equity' in results['backtest']:
-        results['backtest']['equity'].to_csv("equity_curve.csv")
-        print("权益曲线已保存到 equity_curve.csv")
-

factor_mining/FactorFormula.py

@@ -0,0 +1,102 @@
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+from typing import Dict, Callable, List, Optional, Any
+from abc import ABC, abstractmethod
+import inspect
+
+import talib
+from factor_mining.time_series_op import register_time_series_operator
+from factor_mining.operators import _registry
+
+# ==================== 因子公式解析与计算 ====================
+
+
+class FactorFormula:
+    """因子公式：支持序列化和反序列化"""
+
+    def __init__(self, expression: str, feature_names: List[str]):
+        """
+        Parameters:
+        -----------
+        expression : str
+            因子表达式（使用算子名称）
+        feature_names : List[str]
+            特征名称列表
+        """
+        self.expression = expression
+        self.feature_names = feature_names
+
+    def compute(self, features: Dict[str, np.ndarray]) -> np.ndarray:
+        """
+        计算因子值
+
+        Parameters:
+        -----------
+        features : Dict[str, np.ndarray]
+            特征字典，key为特征名称
+
+        Returns:
+        --------
+        np.ndarray: 因子值
+        """
+        # 构建计算环境
+        env = {}
+
+        # 添加特征
+        for name in self.feature_names:
+            if name not in features:
+                raise KeyError(f"特征 '{name}' 不存在")
+            env[name] = features[name]
+
+        # 添加算子
+        for op_name in _registry.list_all():
+            op = _registry.get(op_name)
+            if op:
+                env[op_name] = op.func
+
+        # 添加numpy和pandas（用于某些表达式）
+        env["np"] = np
+        env["pd"] = pd
+
+        # 执行表达式
+        try:
+            # 限制可用的内置函数
+            safe_builtins = {
+                "abs": abs,
+                "min": min,
+                "max": max,
+                "sum": sum,
+                "len": len,
+            }
+            result = eval(self.expression, {"__builtins__": safe_builtins}, env)
+
+            # 确保结果是numpy数组
+            if not isinstance(result, np.ndarray):
+                if isinstance(result, (int, float)):
+                    # 标量转换为数组（广播）
+                    result = np.full(len(features[self.feature_names[0]]), result)
+                else:
+                    result = np.array(result)
+
+            # 确保长度一致
+            expected_len = len(features[self.feature_names[0]])
+            if len(result) != expected_len:
+                raise ValueError(
+                    f"表达式结果长度 {len(result)} 与特征长度 {expected_len} 不匹配"
+                )
+
+            return result
+        except Exception as e:
+            raise RuntimeError(f"计算因子表达式失败: {e}\n表达式: {self.expression}")
+
+    def to_dict(self) -> Dict:
+        """序列化为字典"""
+        return {"expression": self.expression, "feature_names": self.feature_names}
+
+    @classmethod
+    def from_dict(cls, data: Dict) -> "FactorFormula":
+        """从字典反序列化"""
+        return cls(data["expression"], data["feature_names"])
+
+    def __repr__(self):
+        return f"FactorFormula(expression='{self.expression}', features={self.feature_names})"

factor_mining/gp_miner.py

@@ -0,0 +1,243 @@
+"""
+DEAP遗传编程挖掘器实现
+"""
+
+import random
+import operator
+from typing import List, Tuple, Optional
+from dataclasses import dataclass
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+from deap import algorithms, base, creator, gp, tools
+
+from factor_mining.operators import FactorFormula, get_registry, get_operator
+from factor_mining.mining import FactorMiner, MiningConfig
+from data import compute_forward_returns
+
+
+@dataclass
+class GPConfig(MiningConfig):
+    """GP挖掘配置"""
+
+    population_size: int = 200
+    generations: int = 30
+    tournament_size: int = 5
+    crossover_prob: float = 0.9
+    mutation_prob: float = 0.05
+    elitism: int = 5
+    max_depth_init: int = 1
+    max_depth: int = 8
+    complexity_penalty: float = 0.001
+
+
+class GPMiner(FactorMiner):
+    """DEAP遗传编程挖掘器"""
+
+    def __init__(self, config: GPConfig):
+        super().__init__(config)
+        self.config: GPConfig = config
+        self.toolbox: Optional[base.Toolbox] = None
+        self.pset: Optional[gp.PrimitiveSetTyped] = None
+        self.features: Optional[List[pd.Series]] = None
+
+    def get_name(self) -> str:
+        return "gp"
+
+    def _build_pset(self, feature_names: List[str]) -> gp.PrimitiveSetTyped:
+        """构建GP原始集合"""
+        registry = get_registry()
+        pset = gp.PrimitiveSetTyped(
+            "MAIN", [np.ndarray for _ in feature_names], np.ndarray
+        )
+
+        # 命名参数
+        for i, name in enumerate(feature_names):
+            pset.renameArguments(**{f"ARG{i}": name})
+
+        # 添加算子
+        for op_name in registry.list_all():
+            op = registry.get(op_name)
+            if op:
+                sig = op.get_signature()
+                params = list(sig.parameters.values())
+
+                # 根据参数数量判断是一元还是二元算子
+                if len(params) == 1:
+                    # 一元算子
+                    pset.addPrimitive(op.func, [np.ndarray], np.ndarray, name=op_name)
+                elif len(params) == 2:
+                    # 二元算子
+                    pset.addPrimitive(
+                        op.func, [np.ndarray, np.ndarray], np.ndarray, name=op_name
+                    )
+
+        # 添加常量
+        # def _const() -> np.ndarray:
+        #     return np.array(random.uniform(-2.0, 2.0))
+        # pset.addEphemeralConstant("const", _const, np.ndarray)
+
+        return pset
+
+    def _evaluate_individual(self, individual, target: pd.Series) -> Tuple[float]:
+        """评估个体适应度"""
+        func = self.toolbox.compile(expr=individual)
+
+        # 构建特征矩阵
+        idx = target.index
+        inputs = [f.reindex(idx).to_numpy() for f in self.features]
+
+        try:
+            raw = func(*inputs)
+        except Exception:
+            return (-1e6,)
+
+        # 确保数组长度
+        if not isinstance(raw, np.ndarray):
+            return (-1e6,)
+        if raw.shape[0] != len(idx):
+            return (-1e6,)
+
+        # 转换为Series并清理
+        factor = pd.Series(raw, index=idx)
+        factor = factor.replace([np.inf, -np.inf], np.nan)
+        factor = factor.ffill().bfill()
+
+        # 计算滚动IC
+        window = self.config.ic_window
+        if len(factor) < window + 10:
+            return (-1e6,)
+
+        from validation import compute_rolling_ic
+
+        ic_series = compute_rolling_ic(
+            factor, target, window=window, method=self.config.ic_method
+        )
+        mean_ic = ic_series.mean()
+
+        if not np.isfinite(mean_ic):
+            return (-1e6,)
+
+        # 复杂度惩罚
+        complexity = len(individual)
+        fitness = mean_ic - self.config.complexity_penalty * complexity
+
+        if not np.isfinite(fitness):
+            fitness = -1e6
+
+        return (fitness,)
+
+    def _individual_to_formula(
+        self, individual, feature_names: List[str]
+    ) -> FactorFormula:
+        """将GP个体转换为因子公式"""
+        # GP表达式是PrimitiveTree，转换为字符串后是函数调用形式
+        # 例如: "add(ARG0, ARG1)" 或 "mul(add(ARG0, ARG1), const)"
+        expr_str = str(individual)
+
+        # 替换ARG0, ARG1等为实际特征名
+        for i, name in enumerate(feature_names):
+            expr_str = expr_str.replace(f"ARG{i}", name)
+
+        # GP表达式已经是Python可执行的函数调用格式
+        # 例如: "add(close, open)" 可以直接eval
+        # 但需要确保所有算子都在环境中可用
+
+        return FactorFormula(expr_str, feature_names)
+
+    def mine(
+        self, data: pd.DataFrame, feature_cols: List[str], price_col: str = "close"
+    ) -> List[FactorFormula]:
+        """执行GP挖掘"""
+        if self.config.seed is not None:
+            random.seed(self.config.seed)
+            np.random.seed(self.config.seed)
+
+        # 准备数据
+        price = data[price_col].astype(float)
+        forward_ret = compute_forward_returns(price, self.config.ret_horizon)
+        target = forward_ret
+
+        self.features = [data[c].astype(float) for c in feature_cols]
+
+        # 构建原始集合
+        self.pset = self._build_pset(feature_cols)
+
+        # 创建DEAP类型
+        if not hasattr(creator, "FitnessMax"):
+            creator.create("FitnessMax", base.Fitness, weights=(1.0,))
+        if not hasattr(creator, "Individual"):
+            creator.create("Individual", gp.PrimitiveTree, fitness=creator.FitnessMax)
+
+        # 构建工具箱
+        self.toolbox = base.Toolbox()
+        self.toolbox.register(
+            "expr",
+            gp.genHalfAndHalf,
+            pset=self.pset,
+            min_=1,
+            max_=self.config.max_depth_init,
+        )
+        self.toolbox.register(
+            "individual", tools.initIterate, creator.Individual, self.toolbox.expr
+        )
+        self.toolbox.register(
+            "population", tools.initRepeat, list, self.toolbox.individual
+        )
+        self.toolbox.register("compile", gp.compile, pset=self.pset)
+
+        self.toolbox.register("evaluate", self._evaluate_individual, target=target)
+
+        # 遗传算子
+        self.toolbox.register(
+            "select", tools.selTournament, tournsize=self.config.tournament_size
+        )
+        self.toolbox.register("mate", gp.cxOnePoint)
+        self.toolbox.register("expr_mut", gp.genFull, min_=0, max_=2)
+        self.toolbox.register(
+            "mutate", gp.mutUniform, expr=self.toolbox.expr_mut, pset=self.pset
+        )
+
+        # 控制树深度
+        self.toolbox.decorate(
+            "mate",
+            gp.staticLimit(
+                key=operator.attrgetter("height"), max_value=self.config.max_depth
+            ),
+        )
+        self.toolbox.decorate(
+            "mutate",
+            gp.staticLimit(
+                key=operator.attrgetter("height"), max_value=self.config.max_depth
+            ),
+        )
+
+        # 运行进化
+        pop = self.toolbox.population(n=self.config.population_size)
+        hof = tools.HallOfFame(maxsize=max(5000, self.config.elitism))
+
+        stats_fit = tools.Statistics(lambda ind: ind.fitness.values[0])
+        stats_size = tools.Statistics(len)
+        mstats = tools.MultiStatistics(fitness=stats_fit, size=stats_size)
+        mstats.register("avg", np.nanmean)
+        mstats.register("std", np.nanstd)
+        mstats.register("min", np.nanmin)
+        mstats.register("max", np.nanmax)
+
+        pop, logbook = algorithms.eaSimple(
+            pop,
+            self.toolbox,
+            cxpb=self.config.crossover_prob,
+            mutpb=self.config.mutation_prob,
+            ngen=self.config.generations,
+            stats=mstats,
+            halloffame=hof,
+            verbose=True,
+        )
+
+        # 转换为因子公式
+        formulas = []
+        for individual in hof:
+            formula = self._individual_to_formula(individual, feature_cols)
+            formulas.append(formula)
+
+        return formulas

factor_mining/mining.py

@@ -0,0 +1,123 @@
+"""
+因子挖掘抽象层：支持多种挖掘算法（DEAP、DL、RL等）
+"""
+from abc import ABC, abstractmethod
+from typing import List, Dict, Optional, Any
+import pandas as pd
+from dataclasses import dataclass
+
+from factor_mining.FactorFormula import FactorFormula
+
+
+@dataclass
+class MiningConfig:
+    """挖掘配置基类"""
+    ret_horizon: int = 1
+    ic_window: int = 30
+    ic_method: str = "spearman"  # "spearman" or "pearson"
+    seed: Optional[int] = None
+
+
+class FactorMiner(ABC):
+    """因子挖掘器抽象基类"""
+    
+    def __init__(self, config: MiningConfig):
+        self.config = config
+    
+    @abstractmethod
+    def mine(
+        self,
+        data: pd.DataFrame,
+        feature_cols: List[str],
+        price_col: str = "close"
+    ) -> List[FactorFormula]:
+        """
+        挖掘因子
+        
+        Parameters:
+        -----------
+        data : DataFrame
+            数据
+        feature_cols : List[str]
+            特征列名列表
+        price_col : str
+            价格列名
+        
+        Returns:
+        --------
+        List[FactorFormula]: 挖掘出的因子公式列表
+        """
+        pass
+    
+    @abstractmethod
+    def get_name(self) -> str:
+        """获取挖掘器名称"""
+        pass
+
+
+class MiningPipeline:
+    """挖掘流程管理器"""
+    
+    def __init__(self):
+        self.miners: Dict[str, FactorMiner] = {}
+    
+    def register_miner(self, miner: FactorMiner):
+        """注册挖掘器"""
+        name = miner.get_name()
+        if name in self.miners:
+            raise ValueError(f"挖掘器 '{name}' 已存在")
+        self.miners[name] = miner
+    
+    def get_miner(self, name: str) -> Optional[FactorMiner]:
+        """获取挖掘器"""
+        return self.miners.get(name)
+    
+    def list_miners(self) -> List[str]:
+        """列出所有挖掘器"""
+        return list(self.miners.keys())
+    
+    def mine(
+        self,
+        miner_name: str,
+        data: pd.DataFrame,
+        feature_cols: List[str],
+        price_col: str = "close"
+    ) -> List[FactorFormula]:
+        """
+        使用指定挖掘器进行挖掘
+        
+        Parameters:
+        -----------
+        miner_name : str
+            挖掘器名称
+        data : DataFrame
+            数据
+        feature_cols : List[str]
+            特征列名列表
+        price_col : str
+            价格列名
+        
+        Returns:
+        --------
+        List[FactorFormula]: 挖掘出的因子公式列表
+        """
+        miner = self.get_miner(miner_name)
+        if miner is None:
+            raise ValueError(f"挖掘器 '{miner_name}' 不存在")
+        
+        return miner.mine(data, feature_cols, price_col)
+
+
+# 全局挖掘流程管理器
+_pipeline = MiningPipeline()
+
+
+def register_miner(miner: FactorMiner):
+    """注册挖掘器到全局管理器"""
+    _pipeline.register_miner(miner)
+
+
+def get_pipeline() -> MiningPipeline:
+    """获取全局挖掘流程管理器"""
+    return _pipeline
+

factor_mining/operators.py

@@ -0,0 +1,159 @@
+"""
+算子系统：基础数学算子和技术指标算子的注册与管理
+支持算子的注册、查询、反射调用
+"""
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+from typing import Dict, Callable, List, Optional, Any
+from abc import ABC, abstractmethod
+import inspect
+
+import talib
+from factor_mining.time_series_op import register_time_series_operator
+
+
+class Operator(ABC):
+    """算子基类"""
+
+    def __init__(self, name: str, func: Callable, description: str = ""):
+        """
+        Parameters:
+        -----------
+        name : str
+            算子名称（唯一标识）
+        func : Callable
+            算子函数
+        description : str
+            算子描述
+        """
+        self.name = name
+        self.func = func
+        self.description = description
+        self._signature = inspect.signature(func)
+
+    def __call__(self, *args, **kwargs):
+        """调用算子函数"""
+        return self.func(*args, **kwargs)
+
+    def get_signature(self):
+        """获取函数签名"""
+        return self._signature
+
+    def __repr__(self):
+        return f"Operator(name='{self.name}', description='{self.description}')"
+
+
+class OperatorRegistry:
+    """算子注册表"""
+
+    def __init__(self):
+        self._operators: Dict[str, Operator] = {}
+
+    def register(self, operator: Operator):
+        """注册算子"""
+        if operator.name in self._operators:
+            raise ValueError(f"算子 '{operator.name}' 已存在")
+        self._operators[operator.name] = operator
+
+    def register_function(self, name: str, func: Callable, description: str = ""):
+        """直接注册函数为算子"""
+        operator = Operator(name, func, description)
+        self.register(operator)
+
+    def get(self, name: str) -> Optional[Operator]:
+        """获取算子"""
+        return self._operators.get(name)
+
+    def has(self, name: str) -> bool:
+        """检查算子是否存在"""
+        return name in self._operators
+
+    def list_all(self) -> List[str]:
+        """列出所有算子名称"""
+        return list(self._operators.keys())
+
+    def get_all(self) -> Dict[str, Operator]:
+        """获取所有算子"""
+        return self._operators.copy()
+
+
+# 全局算子注册表
+_registry = OperatorRegistry()
+
+
+def register_operator(name: str, description: str = ""):
+    """装饰器：注册算子"""
+
+    def decorator(func: Callable):
+        _registry.register_function(name, func, description)
+        return func
+
+    return decorator
+
+
+def get_operator(name: str) -> Optional[Operator]:
+    """获取算子"""
+    return _registry.get(name)
+
+
+def get_registry() -> OperatorRegistry:
+    """获取全局注册表"""
+    return _registry
+
+
+# ==================== 基础数学算子 ====================
+
+
+@register_operator("add", "加法: x + y")
+def _add(x: np.ndarray, y: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray:
+    return x + y
+
+
+@register_operator("sub", "减法: x - y")
+def _sub(x: np.ndarray, y: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray:
+    return x - y
+
+
+@register_operator("mul", "乘法: x * y")
+def _mul(x: np.ndarray, y: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray:
+    return x * y
+
+
+@register_operator("div", "除法: x / y (安全除法)")
+def _div(x: np.ndarray, y: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray:
+    denom = np.where(np.abs(y) < 1e-12, np.nan, y)
+    return x / denom
+
+
+@register_operator("neg", "取负: -x")
+def _neg(x: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray:
+    return np.negative(x)
+
+
+@register_operator("abs", "绝对值: |x|")
+def _abs(x: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray:
+    return np.abs(x)
+
+
+@register_operator("log", "对数: log(|x|)")
+def _log(x: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray:
+    return np.log(np.clip(np.abs(x), 1e-12, None))
+
+
+@register_operator("sqrt", "平方根: sqrt(x)")
+def _sqrt(x: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray:
+    return np.sqrt(np.clip(x, 0.0, None))
+
+
+@register_operator("pow", "幂运算: x^y (限制范围)")
+def _pow(x: np.ndarray, y: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray:
+    y_clip = np.clip(y, -3.0, 3.0)
+    with np.errstate(over="ignore", invalid="ignore"):
+        out = np.power(np.clip(x, -1e6, 1e6), y_clip)
+    out[~np.isfinite(out)] = np.nan
+    return out
+
+
+# ==================== 时间序列算子 ====================
+register_time_series_operator(_registry)

factor_mining/time_series_op.py

@@ -0,0 +1,75 @@
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+
+
+# ==================== 时间序列算子 ====================
+def _rolling_mean(x: np.ndarray, window: int) -> np.ndarray:
+    s = pd.Series(x)
+    return s.rolling(window, min_periods=max(2, window // 2)).mean().to_numpy()
+
+
+def _rolling_std(x: np.ndarray, window: int) -> np.ndarray:
+    s = pd.Series(x)
+    return s.rolling(window, min_periods=max(2, window // 2)).std().to_numpy()
+
+
+def _ts_delta(x: np.ndarray, period: int) -> np.ndarray:
+    s = pd.Series(x)
+    return s.diff(period).to_numpy()
+
+
+def _ts_rank(x: np.ndarray, window: int) -> np.ndarray:
+    s = pd.Series(x)
+    return (
+        s.rolling(window, min_periods=max(2, window // 2))
+        .apply(lambda a: pd.Series(a).rank(pct=True).iloc[-1], raw=False)
+        .to_numpy()
+    )
+
+
+def _delay(x: np.ndarray, period: int) -> np.ndarray:
+    s = pd.Series(x)
+    return s.shift(period).to_numpy()
+
+
+def _pct_change(x: np.ndarray, period: int = 1) -> np.ndarray:
+    """百分比变化"""
+    s = pd.Series(x)
+    return s.pct_change(periods=period, fill_method=None).to_numpy()
+
+
+def register_time_series_operator(registry) -> None:
+    """注册算子"""
+
+    # 注册时间序列算子（带不同窗口）
+    for w in range(5, 50, 5):
+        registry.register_function(
+            f"sma{w}",
+            (lambda win: lambda x: _rolling_mean(x, win))(w),
+            f"简单移动平均: SMA(x, {w})",
+        )
+        registry.register_function(
+            f"std{w}",
+            (lambda win: lambda x: _rolling_std(x, win))(w),
+            f"滚动标准差: STD(x, {w})",
+        )
+        registry.register_function(
+            f"rank{w}",
+            (lambda win: lambda x: _ts_rank(x, win))(w),
+            f"滚动排名: RANK(x, {w})",
+        )
+        registry.register_function(
+            f"delta{w}",
+            (lambda win: lambda x: _ts_delta(x, win))(w),
+            f"差分: DELTA(x, {w})",
+        )
+        registry.register_function(
+            f"delay{w}",
+            (lambda win: lambda x: _delay(x, win))(w),
+            f"延迟: DELAY(x, {w})",
+        )
+        registry.register_function(
+            f"pct_change{w}",
+            (lambda win: lambda x: _pct_change(x, win))(w),
+            f"百分比变化: PCT_CHANGE(x, {w})",
+        )

factor_mining/validator.py

@@ -0,0 +1,237 @@
+"""
+因子有效性检验模块：整合所有检验方案
+"""
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+from typing import Dict, List, Optional
+from dataclasses import dataclass
+from statsmodels.regression.linear_model import OLS
+
+from validation import (
+    compute_ic,
+    compute_rolling_ic,
+    group_backtest,
+    factor_span_regression
+)
+
+
+@dataclass
+class ValidationConfig:
+    """验证配置"""
+    ic_window: int = 30
+    ic_method: str = "spearman"  # "spearman" or "pearson"
+    n_groups: int = 3
+    group_period: int = 180
+    min_ic: float = 0.01
+    min_tstat: float = 1.5
+    min_r2_change: float = 0.05
+
+
+class FactorValidator:
+    """因子有效性检验器"""
+    
+    def __init__(self, config: ValidationConfig):
+        self.config = config
+    
+    def validate_ic(
+        self,
+        factor: pd.Series,
+        forward_return: pd.Series
+    ) -> Dict:
+        """
+        IC检验
+        
+        Returns:
+        --------
+        dict: 包含mean_ic, ic_ir, ic_series等
+        """
+        rolling_ic = compute_rolling_ic(
+            factor,
+            forward_return,
+            window=self.config.ic_window,
+            method=self.config.ic_method
+        )
+        
+        mean_ic = rolling_ic.mean()
+        ic_std = rolling_ic.std()
+        ic_ir = mean_ic / (ic_std + 1e-8)  # IC信息比率
+        
+        return {
+            "mean_ic": mean_ic,
+            "ic_std": ic_std,
+            "ic_ir": ic_ir,
+            "ic_series": rolling_ic,
+            "is_valid": abs(mean_ic) >= self.config.min_ic
+        }
+    
+    def validate_group_backtest(
+        self,
+        factor: pd.Series,
+        forward_return: pd.Series
+    ) -> Dict:
+        """
+        分组回测检验
+        
+        Returns:
+        --------
+        dict: 包含mean_h_l_return, mean_h_l_tstat等
+        """
+        result = group_backtest(
+            factor,
+            forward_return,
+            n_groups=self.config.n_groups,
+            group_period=self.config.group_period
+        )
+        
+        is_valid = abs(result.get('mean_h_l_tstat', 0)) >= self.config.min_tstat
+        
+        return {
+            **result,
+            "is_valid": is_valid
+        }
+    
+    def validate_regression(
+        self,
+        factor: pd.Series,
+        forward_return: pd.Series,
+        other_factors: Optional[pd.DataFrame] = None
+    ) -> Dict:
+        """
+        因子跨度回归检验
+        
+        Parameters:
+        -----------
+        factor : Series
+            待检验因子
+        forward_return : Series
+            未来收益率
+        other_factors : DataFrame, optional
+            其他因子（用于控制变量）
+        
+        Returns:
+        --------
+        dict: 包含beta, tstat, r2_change等
+        """
+        if other_factors is None:
+            other_factors = pd.DataFrame()
+        
+        # 合并因子
+        factors_df = pd.concat([other_factors, factor.to_frame(name='target')], axis=1)
+        
+        result = factor_span_regression(
+            factors_df,
+            forward_return,
+            target_factor='target'
+        )
+        
+        is_valid = (
+            abs(result.get('tstat', 0)) >= self.config.min_tstat and
+            result.get('r2_change', 0) >= self.config.min_r2_change
+        )
+        
+        return {
+            **result,
+            "is_valid": is_valid
+        }
+    
+    def validate_all(
+        self,
+        factor: pd.Series,
+        forward_return: pd.Series,
+        other_factors: Optional[pd.DataFrame] = None
+    ) -> Dict:
+        """
+        综合检验：执行所有检验方法
+        
+        Returns:
+        --------
+        dict: 包含所有检验结果和综合判断
+        """
+        results = {}
+        
+        # IC检验
+        ic_result = self.validate_ic(factor, forward_return)
+        results['ic'] = ic_result
+        
+        # 分组回测
+        group_result = self.validate_group_backtest(factor, forward_return)
+        results['group_backtest'] = group_result
+        
+        # 回归检验
+        reg_result = self.validate_regression(factor, forward_return, other_factors)
+        results['regression'] = reg_result
+        
+        # 综合判断
+        is_valid = (
+            ic_result['is_valid'] and
+            group_result['is_valid'] and
+            reg_result['is_valid']
+        )
+        
+        results['is_valid'] = is_valid
+        results['score'] = self._calculate_score(ic_result, group_result, reg_result)
+        
+        return results
+    
+    def _calculate_score(
+        self,
+        ic_result: Dict,
+        group_result: Dict,
+        reg_result: Dict
+    ) -> float:
+        """计算综合得分"""
+        score = 0.0
+        
+        # IC得分（权重0.3）
+        ic_score = abs(ic_result.get('mean_ic', 0)) * 10
+        score += ic_score * 0.3
+        
+        # 分组回测得分（权重0.4）
+        tstat = abs(group_result.get('mean_h_l_tstat', 0))
+        tstat_score = min(tstat / 3.0, 1.0)  # 归一化到[0, 1]
+        score += tstat_score * 0.4
+        
+        # 回归得分（权重0.3）
+        r2_change = reg_result.get('r2_change', 0)
+        r2_score = min(r2_change / 0.1, 1.0)  # 归一化到[0, 1]
+        score += r2_score * 0.3
+        
+        return score
+    
+    def filter_factors(
+        self,
+        factors: pd.DataFrame,
+        forward_return: pd.Series
+    ) -> pd.DataFrame:
+        """
+        批量过滤因子：只保留有效因子
+        
+        Returns:
+        --------
+        DataFrame: 有效因子
+        """
+        valid_factors = []
+        
+        for col in factors.columns:
+            factor = factors[col]
+            result = self.validate_all(factor, forward_return, factors.drop(columns=[col]))
+            
+            if result['is_valid']:
+                valid_factors.append(col)
+        
+        return factors[valid_factors] if valid_factors else pd.DataFrame()
+
+
+def create_validator(
+    ic_window: int = 30,
+    min_ic: float = 0.01,
+    min_tstat: float = 1.5
+) -> FactorValidator:
+    """创建验证器（便捷函数）"""
+    config = ValidationConfig(
+        ic_window=ic_window,
+        min_ic=min_ic,
+        min_tstat=min_tstat
+    )
+    return FactorValidator(config)
+

factors.py

@@ -1,113 +0,0 @@
-"""
-因子挖掘模块：支持规则因子和遗传编程因子
-"""
-import numpy as np
-import pandas as pd
-from typing import Callable, Dict, List, Optional
-from abc import ABC, abstractmethod
-
-
-class BaseFactor(ABC):
-    """因子基类"""
-    
-    def __init__(self, name: str):
-        self.name = name
-    
-    @abstractmethod
-    def compute(self, data: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.Series:
-        """计算因子值"""
-        pass
-
-
-class RuleFactor(BaseFactor):
-    """规则因子：基于固定规则"""
-    
-    def __init__(self, name: str, compute_func: Callable[[pd.DataFrame], pd.Series]):
-        super().__init__(name)
-        self.compute_func = compute_func
-    
-    def compute(self, data: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.Series:
-        return self.compute_func(data)
-
-
-def create_trend_factor(data: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.Series:
-    """趋势因子：价格趋势方向"""
-    trend = pd.Series(0, index=data.index)
-    trend[data['close'] > data['ema16']] = 1
-    trend[data['close'] < data['ema4']] = -1
-    return trend
-
-
-def create_volatility_factor(data: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.Series:
-    """波动率因子：滚动12期收益率标准差"""
-    return data['volatility']
-
-
-def create_volume_price_factor(data: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.Series:
-    """量价因子：成交量放大且价格上涨"""
-    volume_signal = (data['volume'] > data['volume_ma6']).astype(int)
-    return volume_signal * data['return']
-
-
-def create_reversal_factor(data: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.Series:
-    """反转因子：短期反转效应"""
-    return -data['return'].shift(1)
-
-
-def create_momentum_factor(data: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.Series:
-    """动量因子：基于MACD"""
-    return data['macd']
-
-
-def create_rsi_factor(data: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.Series:
-    """RSI因子：相对强弱指数（标准化）"""
-    return (data['rsi'] - 50) / 50  # 归一化到[-1, 1]
-
-
-class FactorMiner:
-    """因子挖掘器"""
-    
-    def __init__(self):
-        self.factors: Dict[str, BaseFactor] = {}
-    
-    def register_factor(self, factor: BaseFactor):
-        """注册因子"""
-        self.factors[factor.name] = factor
-    
-    def register_rule_factor(self, name: str, compute_func: Callable):
-        """注册规则因子"""
-        factor = RuleFactor(name, compute_func)
-        self.register_factor(factor)
-    
-    def compute_all_factors(self, data: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
-        """计算所有因子"""
-        factor_df = pd.DataFrame(index=data.index)
-        
-        for name, factor in self.factors.items():
-            try:
-                factor_df[name] = factor.compute(data)
-            except Exception as e:
-                print(f"计算因子 {name} 时出错: {e}")
-                factor_df[name] = np.nan
-        
-        return factor_df
-    
-    def get_factor(self, name: str) -> Optional[BaseFactor]:
-        """获取指定因子"""
-        return self.factors.get(name)
-
-
-def create_default_factors() -> FactorMiner:
-    """创建默认因子集合"""
-    miner = FactorMiner()
-    
-    # 注册基础因子
-    miner.register_rule_factor('TREND', create_trend_factor)
-    miner.register_rule_factor('VOL', create_volatility_factor)
-    miner.register_rule_factor('VOLP', create_volume_price_factor)
-    miner.register_rule_factor('REV', create_reversal_factor)
-    miner.register_rule_factor('MOM', create_momentum_factor)
-    miner.register_rule_factor('RSI', create_rsi_factor)
-    
-    return miner
-

pipeline.py

@@ -1,287 +0,0 @@
-"""
-主流程：时间序列因子挖掘、检验、回测、信号生成
-"""
-import pandas as pd
-from typing import Dict, List, Optional
-import warnings
-warnings.filterwarnings('ignore')
-
-from data import load_data, compute_technical_indicators, preprocess_data, compute_forward_returns
-from factors import FactorMiner, create_default_factors
-from validation import validate_factor, factor_span_regression
-from combination import MultiFactorModel
-from backtest import BacktestEngine
-from signal import generate_signals
-
-
-class FactorPipeline:
-    """因子挖掘流程"""
-    
-    def __init__(
-        self,
-        ret_horizon: int = 1,
-        ic_window: int = 30,
-        commission: float = 0.001,
-        slippage: float = 0.0005
-    ):
-        """
-        Parameters:
-        -----------
-        ret_horizon : int
-            未来收益率周期
-        ic_window : int
-            IC计算窗口
-        commission : float
-            手续费率
-        slippage : float
-            滑点
-        """
-        self.ret_horizon = ret_horizon
-        self.ic_window = ic_window
-        self.commission = commission
-        self.slippage = slippage
-        
-        self.data: Optional[pd.DataFrame] = None
-        self.factors: Optional[pd.DataFrame] = None
-        self.forward_return: Optional[pd.Series] = None
-        self.factor_miner: Optional[FactorMiner] = None
-        self.validation_results: Dict = {}
-        self.model: Optional[MultiFactorModel] = None
-        self.score: Optional[pd.Series] = None
-        self.backtest_results: Optional[Dict] = None
-    
-    def load_and_preprocess(self, file_path: str) -> 'FactorPipeline':
-        """步骤1：加载和预处理数据"""
-        print("=" * 50)
-        print("步骤1：加载和预处理数据")
-        print("=" * 50)
-        
-        # 加载数据
-        self.data = load_data(file_path)
-        print(f"加载数据: {len(self.data)} 条记录")
-        
-        # 计算技术指标
-        self.data = compute_technical_indicators(self.data)
-        print("计算技术指标完成")
-        
-        # 预处理
-        self.data = preprocess_data(self.data)
-        print("数据预处理完成")
-        
-        # 计算未来收益率
-        self.forward_return = compute_forward_returns(
-            self.data['close'],
-            horizon=self.ret_horizon
-        )
-        print(f"计算未来收益率完成（周期={self.ret_horizon}）")
-        
-        return self
-    
-    def mine_factors(self, custom_miner: Optional[FactorMiner] = None) -> 'FactorPipeline':
-        """步骤2：因子挖掘"""
-        print("\n" + "=" * 50)
-        print("步骤2：因子挖掘")
-        print("=" * 50)
-        
-        if self.data is None:
-            raise ValueError("请先加载数据")
-        
-        # 使用自定义或默认因子挖掘器
-        if custom_miner is None:
-            self.factor_miner = create_default_factors()
-        else:
-            self.factor_miner = custom_miner
-        
-        # 计算所有因子
-        self.factors = self.factor_miner.compute_all_factors(self.data)
-        print(f"计算因子完成: {list(self.factors.columns)}")
-        
-        return self
-    
-    def validate_factors(self, min_ic: float = 0.01, min_tstat: float = 1.5) -> 'FactorPipeline':
-        """步骤3：因子检验"""
-        print("\n" + "=" * 50)
-        print("步骤3：因子检验")
-        print("=" * 50)
-        
-        if self.factors is None or self.forward_return is None:
-            raise ValueError("请先完成因子挖掘")
-        
-        valid_factors = []
-        self.validation_results = {}
-        
-        for factor_name in self.factors.columns:
-            factor = self.factors[factor_name]
-            
-            # 综合检验
-            result = validate_factor(factor, self.forward_return, ic_window=self.ic_window)
-            self.validation_results[factor_name] = result
-            
-            # 筛选有效因子
-            if (abs(result['mean_ic']) >= min_ic and 
-                abs(result['mean_h_l_tstat']) >= min_tstat):
-                valid_factors.append(factor_name)
-                print(f"\n因子 {factor_name}:")
-                print(f"  平均IC: {result['mean_ic']:.4f}")
-                print(f"  IC信息比率: {result['ic_ir']:.4f}")
-                print(f"  H-L收益差: {result['mean_h_l_return']:.4f}")
-                print(f"  H-L t统计量: {result['mean_h_l_tstat']:.4f}")
-            else:
-                print(f"\n因子 {factor_name} 未通过检验 (IC={result['mean_ic']:.4f}, t={result['mean_h_l_tstat']:.4f})")
-        
-        # 只保留有效因子
-        if valid_factors:
-            self.factors = self.factors[valid_factors]
-            print(f"\n有效因子: {valid_factors}")
-        else:
-            print("\n警告：没有因子通过检验！")
-        
-        return self
-    
-    def combine_factors(
-        self,
-        weight_method: str = 'risk_parity',
-        window: Optional[int] = None
-    ) -> 'FactorPipeline':
-        """步骤4：因子组合"""
-        print("\n" + "=" * 50)
-        print("步骤4：因子组合")
-        print("=" * 50)
-        
-        if self.factors is None or len(self.factors.columns) == 0:
-            raise ValueError("没有有效因子可组合")
-        
-        # 创建多因子模型
-        self.model = MultiFactorModel(weight_method=weight_method)
-        self.model.fit(
-            self.factors,
-            forward_return=self.forward_return,
-            window=window
-        )
-        
-        # 计算综合得分
-        self.score = self.model.predict(self.factors)
-        
-        # 显示权重
-        weights = self.model.get_weights()
-        print("因子权重:")
-        for name, weight in weights.items():
-            print(f"  {name}: {weight:.4f}")
-        
-        print(f"\n综合得分统计:")
-        print(f"  均值: {self.score.mean():.4f}")
-        print(f"  标准差: {self.score.std():.4f}")
-        
-        return self
-    
-    def generate_signals(
-        self,
-        buy_threshold: float = 0.8,
-        sell_threshold: float = -0.8,
-        window: int = 30
-    ) -> pd.Series:
-        """步骤5：生成交易信号"""
-        if self.score is None:
-            raise ValueError("请先完成因子组合")
-        
-        signals = generate_signals(
-            self.score,
-            buy_threshold=buy_threshold,
-            sell_threshold=sell_threshold,
-            window=window
-        )
-        
-        return signals
-    
-    def backtest(
-        self,
-        signals: Optional[pd.Series] = None,
-        buy_threshold: float = 0.8,
-        sell_threshold: float = -0.8,
-        window: int = 30
-    ) -> Dict:
-        """步骤6：回测"""
-        print("\n" + "=" * 50)
-        print("步骤6：回测")
-        print("=" * 50)
-        
-        if self.data is None:
-            raise ValueError("请先加载数据")
-        
-        if signals is None:
-            signals = self.generate_signals(buy_threshold, sell_threshold, window)
-        
-        # 创建回测引擎
-        engine = BacktestEngine(
-            commission=self.commission,
-            slippage=self.slippage
-        )
-        
-        # 运行回测
-        self.backtest_results = engine.run(
-            signals,
-            self.data['close'],
-            score=self.score
-        )
-        
-        # 显示结果
-        metrics = self.backtest_results['metrics']
-        print("\n回测结果:")
-        print(f"  总收益率: {metrics.get('total_return', 0)*100:.2f}%")
-        print(f"  年化收益率: {metrics.get('annual_return', 0)*100:.2f}%")
-        print(f"  年化波动率: {metrics.get('annual_volatility', 0)*100:.2f}%")
-        print(f"  夏普比率: {metrics.get('sharpe_ratio', 0):.2f}")
-        print(f"  最大回撤: {metrics.get('max_drawdown', 0)*100:.2f}%")
-        print(f"  胜率: {metrics.get('win_rate', 0)*100:.2f}%")
-        print(f"  盈亏比: {metrics.get('profit_loss_ratio', 0):.2f}")
-        print(f"  交易次数: {metrics.get('total_trades', 0)}")
-        
-        return self.backtest_results
-    
-    def run_full_pipeline(
-        self,
-        file_path: str,
-        custom_miner: Optional[FactorMiner] = None,
-        min_ic: float = 0.01,
-        min_tstat: float = 1.5,
-        weight_method: str = 'risk_parity',
-        buy_threshold: float = 0.8,
-        sell_threshold: float = -0.8
-    ) -> Dict:
-        """运行完整流程"""
-        self.load_and_preprocess(file_path) \
-            .mine_factors(custom_miner) \
-            .validate_factors(min_ic, min_tstat) \
-            .combine_factors(weight_method) \
-            .backtest(buy_threshold=buy_threshold, sell_threshold=sell_threshold)
-        
-        return {
-            'factors': self.factors,
-            'score': self.score,
-            'validation': self.validation_results,
-            'backtest': self.backtest_results
-        }
-
-
-if __name__ == "__main__":
-    # 示例使用
-    pipeline = FactorPipeline(ret_horizon=1, ic_window=30)
-    
-    results = pipeline.run_full_pipeline(
-        file_path="ETH_USDT-1h.feather",
-        min_ic=0.01,
-        min_tstat=1.5,
-        weight_method='risk_parity',
-        buy_threshold=0.8,
-        sell_threshold=-0.8
-    )
-    
-    # 保存结果
-    if results['factors'] is not None:
-        results['factors'].to_csv("factors.csv")
-        print("\n因子数据已保存到 factors.csv")
-    
-    if results['score'] is not None:
-        results['score'].to_csv("score.csv")
-        print("综合得分已保存到 score.csv")
-

requirements.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
+pandas>=1.3.0
+numpy>=1.20.0
+scipy>=1.7.0
+statsmodels>=0.13.0
+deap>=1.3.0
+

signal.py

@@ -1,109 +0,0 @@
-"""
-信号生成模块
-"""
-import numpy as np
-import pandas as pd
-from typing import Optional, TYPE_CHECKING
-
-if TYPE_CHECKING:
-    from pandas import Series
-
-
-def generate_signals(
-    score: 'pd.Series',
-    buy_threshold: float = 0.8,
-    sell_threshold: float = -0.8,
-    window: int = 30,
-    use_rolling_std: bool = True
-) -> 'pd.Series':
-    """
-    基于因子得分生成买卖信号
-    
-    Parameters:
-    -----------
-    score : Series
-        因子综合得分
-    buy_threshold : float
-        买入阈值（标准差倍数）
-    sell_threshold : float
-        卖出阈值（标准差倍数）
-    window : int
-        滚动窗口（用于计算标准差）
-    use_rolling_std : bool
-        是否使用滚动标准差
-    
-    Returns:
-    --------
-    Series: 交易信号（1=买入，-1=卖出，0=持有）
-    """
-    signals = pd.Series(0, index=score.index)
-    
-    if use_rolling_std:
-        # 使用滚动标准差
-        rolling_std = score.rolling(window).std()
-        buy_line = buy_threshold * rolling_std
-        sell_line = sell_threshold * rolling_std
-    else:
-        # 使用固定阈值
-        std = score.std()
-        buy_line = buy_threshold * std
-        sell_line = sell_threshold * std
-    
-    # 生成原始信号
-    raw_signals = pd.Series(0, index=score.index)
-    raw_signals[score > buy_line] = 1   # 买入信号
-    raw_signals[score < sell_line] = -1  # 卖出信号
-    
-    # 只在信号变化时产生交易信号，其他时候保持持仓状态
-    signals = pd.Series(0, index=score.index)
-    position = 0  # 当前持仓状态：0=空仓，1=满仓
-    
-    for i in range(len(raw_signals)):
-        current_signal = raw_signals.iloc[i]
-        
-        # 只在信号变化时产生交易
-        if current_signal == 1 and position == 0:
-            signals.iloc[i] = 1  # 买入
-            position = 1
-        elif current_signal == -1 and position == 1:
-            signals.iloc[i] = -1  # 卖出
-            position = 0
-        # 其他情况保持当前持仓状态，不产生交易信号
-    
-    return signals.astype(int)
-
-
-def generate_signals_with_position(
-    score: 'pd.Series',
-    buy_threshold: float = 0.8,
-    sell_threshold: float = -0.8,
-    window: int = 30,
-    current_position: int = 0
-) -> 'pd.Series':
-    """
-    生成信号（考虑当前持仓状态）
-    
-    Parameters:
-    -----------
-    current_position : int
-        当前持仓：0=空仓，1=满仓
-    """
-    raw_signals = generate_signals(score, buy_threshold, sell_threshold, window)
-    signals = pd.Series(0, index=score.index)
-    
-    position = current_position
-    
-    for i in range(len(raw_signals)):
-        signal = raw_signals.iloc[i]
-        
-        if signal == 1 and position == 0:
-            signals.iloc[i] = 1  # 买入
-            position = 1
-        elif signal == -1 and position == 1:
-            signals.iloc[i] = -1  # 卖出
-            position = 0
-        else:
-            signals.iloc[i] = 0  # 持有
-    
-    return signals
-

test.py

@@ -0,0 +1,58 @@
+import warnings
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+import json
+
+# 抑制numpy的警告（由于数据中包含NaN值，这是正常的）
+warnings.filterwarnings("ignore", category=RuntimeWarning, module="numpy")
+np.seterr(all="ignore")  # 忽略numpy的浮点错误警告
+
+from data import load_data
+from factor_mining.gp_miner import GPMiner, GPConfig
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    df = load_data("/Users/aszer/Documents/vscode/factorhack/ETH_USDT-1h.feather")
+    # 以4小时为周期重采样K线数据（假定有datetime索引，常见ohlcv列）
+    df = (
+        df.resample("4h")
+        .agg(
+            {
+                "open": "first",
+                "high": "max",
+                "low": "min",
+                "close": "last",
+                "volume": "sum",
+            }
+        )
+        .dropna()
+    )
+    df = df[df.index < '2023-01-01']
+    print("数据加载成功，前5行：")
+    print(df.head())
+    print(f"\n数据形状: {df.shape}")
+    print(f"数据列: {df.columns.tolist()}")
+    gp_config = GPConfig(
+        ret_horizon=48,
+        ic_window=120,
+        ic_method="spearman",
+        seed=None,
+        population_size=200,
+        generations=30,
+        tournament_size=5,
+        crossover_prob=0.9,
+        mutation_prob=0.05,
+        elitism=5,
+        max_depth_init=1,
+        max_depth=30,
+        complexity_penalty=0.001,
+    )
+    miner = GPMiner(config=gp_config)
+    res = miner.mine(df, ["open", "high", "low", "close", "volume"])
+    with open("gp_miner_result.txt", "w") as out_file:
+        for formula, ic_tuple in res:
+            # ic_tuple 是元组，取第一个元素作为IC值
+            ic = ic_tuple[0] if isinstance(ic_tuple, tuple) else ic_tuple
+            print(f"{formula.expression}, IC: {ic:.4f}")
+            # 将因子公式转换为字典并写入文件
+            out_file.write(json.dumps(formula.to_dict(), ensure_ascii=False))
+            out_file.write("\n")

validation.py

@@ -1,62 +1,43 @@
 """
-因子检验模块：IC检验、分组回测、因子跨度回归
+因子检验模块: IC检验、分组回测、因子跨度回归
 """
+
 import numpy as np
 import pandas as pd
 from typing import Dict, List, Tuple
 from statsmodels.regression.linear_model import OLS
 
 
-def compute_ic(factor: pd.Series, forward_return: pd.Series, method: str = 'spearman') -> pd.Series:
-    """
-    计算IC（信息系数）
-    
-    Parameters:
-    -----------
-    factor : Series
-        因子值
-    forward_return : Series
-        未来收益率
-    method : str
-        相关性计算方法：'spearman' 或 'pearson'
-    """
-    aligned = pd.concat([factor, forward_return], axis=1).dropna()
-    if len(aligned) < 10:
-        return pd.Series(dtype=float)
-    
-    if method == 'spearman':
-        ic = aligned.iloc[:, 0].rank().corr(aligned.iloc[:, 1].rank())
-    else:
-        ic = aligned.iloc[:, 0].corr(aligned.iloc[:, 1])
-    
-    return pd.Series([ic], index=[aligned.index[-1]])
-
-
 def compute_rolling_ic(
     factor: pd.Series,
     forward_return: pd.Series,
     window: int = 30,
-    method: str = 'spearman'
+    method: str = "spearman",
 ) -> pd.Series:
-    """计算滚动IC（向量化优化）"""
+    """计算滚动IC (向量化优化)"""
     # 对齐数据
     aligned = pd.concat([factor, forward_return], axis=1).dropna()
     if len(aligned) < window:
         return pd.Series(dtype=float, index=factor.index[window:])
 
-    aligned.columns = ['factor', 'return']
+    aligned.columns = ["factor", "return"]
 
-    if method == 'spearman':
+    if method == "spearman":
         # 使用rank计算Spearman相关性
-        factor_rank = aligned['factor'].rank()
+        # 这里是全局的 rank，理论上应该是按照 window 滚动排序
-        return_rank = aligned['return'].rank()
+        factor_rank = aligned["factor"].rank()
-        # 使用DataFrame的rolling().corr()方法
+        return_rank = aligned["return"].rank()
-        df_rank = pd.DataFrame({'factor': factor_rank, 'return': return_rank})
+        # 使用DataFrame的rolling().corr()方法, 该方法pandas优化过
-        ic_series = df_rank['factor'].rolling(window, min_periods=window).corr(df_rank['return'])
+        df_rank = pd.DataFrame({"factor": factor_rank, "return": return_rank})
+        ic_series = (
+            df_rank["factor"]
+            .rolling(window, min_periods=window)
+            .corr(df_rank["return"])
+        )
     else:
         # Pearson相关性
-        df = pd.DataFrame({'factor': aligned['factor'], 'return': aligned['return']})
+        df = pd.DataFrame({"factor": aligned["factor"], "return": aligned["return"]})
-        ic_series = df['factor'].rolling(window, min_periods=window).corr(df['return'])
+        ic_series = df["factor"].rolling(window, min_periods=window).corr(df["return"])
 
     return ic_series
 
@@ -65,7 +46,7 @@ def group_backtest(
     factor: pd.Series,
     forward_return: pd.Series,
     n_groups: int = 3,
-    group_period: int = 180
+    group_period: int = 180,
 ) -> Dict:
     """
     分组回测：将数据按因子值分组，计算各组收益
@@ -75,14 +56,9 @@ def group_backtest(
     dict: 包含各组收益、H-L收益差、t统计量等
     """
     aligned = pd.concat([factor, forward_return], axis=1).dropna()
-    aligned.columns = ['factor', 'return']
+    aligned.columns = ["factor", "return"]
 
-    results = {
+    results = {"group_returns": [], "h_l_return": [], "h_l_tstat": [], "periods": []}
-        'group_returns': [],
-        'h_l_return': [],
-        'h_l_tstat': [],
-        'periods': []
-    }
 
     # 按月分组（每180个4h周期）- 使用更高效的步长
     step = max(group_period // 2, 90)  # 减少重叠计算
@@ -96,50 +72,45 @@ def group_backtest(
         # 按因子值分组（向量化）
         try:
             period_data = period_data.copy()
-            period_data['group'] = pd.qcut(
+            period_data["group"] = pd.qcut(
-                period_data['factor'],
+                period_data["factor"], q=n_groups, labels=False, duplicates="drop"
-                q=n_groups,
-                labels=False,
-                duplicates='drop'
             )
 
             # 计算各组收益（向量化）
-            group_returns = period_data.groupby('group')['return'].mean()
+            group_returns = period_data.groupby("group")["return"].mean()
-            results['group_returns'].append(group_returns)
+            results["group_returns"].append(group_returns)
 
             # H-L收益差
             if len(group_returns) >= 2:
                 h_return = group_returns.iloc[-1]  # 高因子组
-                l_return = group_returns.iloc[0]   # 低因子组
+                l_return = group_returns.iloc[0]  # 低因子组
                 h_l_diff = h_return - l_return
 
-                results['h_l_return'].append(h_l_diff)
+                results["h_l_return"].append(h_l_diff)
-                results['periods'].append(period_data.index[-1])
+                results["periods"].append(period_data.index[-1])
         except (ValueError, KeyError):
             # qcut失败时跳过
             continue
 
     # 计算平均H-L收益和t统计量
-    if results['h_l_return']:
+    if results["h_l_return"]:
-        h_l_series = pd.Series(results['h_l_return'], index=results['periods'])
+        h_l_series = pd.Series(results["h_l_return"], index=results["periods"])
         mean_h_l = h_l_series.mean()
         std_h_l = h_l_series.std()
         t_stat = mean_h_l / (std_h_l / np.sqrt(len(h_l_series)) + 1e-8)
 
-        results['mean_h_l_return'] = mean_h_l
+        results["mean_h_l_return"] = mean_h_l
-        results['mean_h_l_tstat'] = t_stat
+        results["mean_h_l_tstat"] = t_stat
-        results['h_l_series'] = h_l_series
+        results["h_l_series"] = h_l_series
     else:
-        results['mean_h_l_return'] = 0
+        results["mean_h_l_return"] = 0
-        results['mean_h_l_tstat'] = 0
+        results["mean_h_l_tstat"] = 0
 
     return results
 
 
 def factor_span_regression(
-    factors: pd.DataFrame,
+    factors: pd.DataFrame, forward_return: pd.Series, target_factor: str
-    forward_return: pd.Series,
-    target_factor: str
 ) -> Dict:
     """
     因子跨度回归：检验因子的边际解释力
@@ -160,14 +131,14 @@ def factor_span_regression(
     # 对齐数据
     data = pd.concat([factors, forward_return], axis=1).dropna()
     if len(data) < 30:
-        return {'beta': 0, 'tstat': 0, 'r2': 0, 'r2_change': 0}
+        return {"beta": 0, "tstat": 0, "r2": 0, "r2_change": 0}
 
     y = data.iloc[:, -1].values
     X_all = data.iloc[:, :-1].values
 
     # 全模型（包含目标因子）
     try:
-        model_all = OLS(y, X_all).fit(cov_type='HAC', cov_kwds={'maxlags': 6})
+        model_all = OLS(y, X_all).fit(cov_type="HAC", cov_kwds={"maxlags": 6})
         r2_all = model_all.rsquared
 
         # 目标因子的系数和t统计量
@@ -177,28 +148,25 @@ def factor_span_regression(
 
         # 不含目标因子的模型
         X_without = np.delete(X_all, target_idx, axis=1)
-        model_without = OLS(y, X_without).fit(cov_type='HAC', cov_kwds={'maxlags': 6})
+        model_without = OLS(y, X_without).fit(cov_type="HAC", cov_kwds={"maxlags": 6})
         r2_without = model_without.rsquared
 
         r2_change = r2_all - r2_without
 
         return {
-            'beta': beta,
+            "beta": beta,
-            'tstat': tstat,
+            "tstat": tstat,
-            'r2': r2_all,
+            "r2": r2_all,
-            'r2_change': r2_change,
+            "r2_change": r2_change,
-            'pvalue': model_all.pvalues[target_idx]
+            "pvalue": model_all.pvalues[target_idx],
         }
     except Exception as e:
         print(f"回归分析出错: {e}")
-        return {'beta': 0, 'tstat': 0, 'r2': 0, 'r2_change': 0}
+        return {"beta": 0, "tstat": 0, "r2": 0, "r2_change": 0}
 
 
 def validate_factor(
-    factor: pd.Series,
+    factor: pd.Series, forward_return: pd.Series, ic_window: int = 30, n_groups: int = 3
-    forward_return: pd.Series,
-    ic_window: int = 30,
-    n_groups: int = 3
 ) -> Dict:
     """
     综合因子检验
@@ -216,11 +184,10 @@ def validate_factor(
     group_result = group_backtest(factor, forward_return, n_groups=n_groups)
 
     return {
-        'mean_ic': mean_ic,
+        "mean_ic": mean_ic,
-        'ic_ir': ic_ir,
+        "ic_ir": ic_ir,
-        'ic_series': rolling_ic,
+        "ic_series": rolling_ic,
-        'mean_h_l_return': group_result['mean_h_l_return'],
+        "mean_h_l_return": group_result["mean_h_l_return"],
-        'mean_h_l_tstat': group_result['mean_h_l_tstat'],
+        "mean_h_l_tstat": group_result["mean_h_l_tstat"],
-        'group_returns': group_result['group_returns']
+        "group_returns": group_result["group_returns"],
     }
-