feat(config): 添加CU.SHF有色金属期货信号源,移除冗余上证红利

讨论背景:
- 159980.SZ(有色ETF)是商品型基金,跟踪上期所有色金属期货价格指数
- 应使用期货价格(CU.SHF沪铜)作为信号源,与黄金(AU.SHF)/原油(CL.NYM)保持一致
- 上证红利(000015.SH)与中证红利低波(H30269.CSI)高度相关,同属A股大类
  在diversified模式下只能选1个,保留两个无实际意义

配置变更:
- rotation.yaml: 新增CU.SHF→159980.SZ映射(market=COMMODITY)
- rotation.yaml: 移除000015.SH上证红利(与红利低波冗余)
- hybrid_source.py: FUTURES_CODE_MAP新增CU.SHF铜期货
- ab_test_iterations.py: 同步更新有色market为COMMODITY

实证结果 - CU.SHF加入前后对比(11只池,2019-2026):
  无CU(11只): CAGR=47.37%, Sharpe=2.25, MaxDD=-17.86%, Calmar=2.65
  含CU(12只): CAGR=46.16%, Sharpe=2.21, MaxDD=-17.86%, Calmar=2.58
  影响: CAGR-1.2%, 商品大类内部竞争加剧(黄金/原油/有色三选一)
  2020/2022铜价暴涨时有色贡献额外收益,整体影响很小

实证结果 - 移除上证红利后(11只,2019-2026):
  含上证红利: CAGR=46.16%, Sharpe=2.21, MaxDD=-17.86%, Calmar=2.58
  移除后:     CAGR=46.42%, Sharpe=2.22, MaxDD=-17.33%, Calmar=2.68
  所有指标均改善,消除冗余标的提升选择效率

实证结果 - diversified=true vs false(11只,select_num=3):
  true(跨类分散):  CAGR=46.45%, Sharpe=2.22, MaxDD=-17.33%, Calmar=2.68
  false(纯Top3):   CAGR=44.19%, Sharpe=2.13, MaxDD=-18.12%, Calmar=2.44
  关键差异在2022年(+17.63%): false模式选3只商品同时回调
  结论: diversified=true全面优于false,保持当前配置

最终候选池(11只,7大类):
  A股: 创业板(399006.SZ), 红利低波(H30269.CSI)
  美股: 纳指100(NDX) | 日本: 日经225(N225) | 欧洲: 德国DAX(GDAXI)
  港股: 恒生指数(HSI), 恒生科技(HSTECH.HK)
  商品: 黄金(AU.SHF), 原油(CL.NYM), 有色金属(CU.SHF)
  固收: 30年国债(931862.CSI)
This commit is contained in:
2026-04-30 13:37:46 +08:00
parent 4df3ac4e31
commit d0a9d66a11
3 changed files with 6 additions and 5 deletions

View File

@@ -28,7 +28,7 @@ ORIGINAL_POOL = {
"399986.SZ": {"name": "中证银行", "market": "A", "etf": "516310.SH"},
"399997.SZ": {"name": "中证白酒", "market": "A", "etf": "512690.SH"},
"399989.SZ": {"name": "中证医疗", "market": "A", "etf": "512170.SH"},
"399395.SZ": {"name": "国证有色", "market": "A", "etf": "159880.SZ"},
"399395.SZ": {"name": "国证有色", "market": "COMMODITY", "etf": "159880.SZ"},
"399998.SZ": {"name": "中证煤炭", "market": "A", "etf": "515220.SH"},
"399967.SZ": {"name": "中证军工", "market": "A", "etf": "512660.SH"},
"HSTECH.HK": {"name": "恒生科技", "market": "HK", "etf": "513180.SH"},